The 10th International Conference on Fuzzy Systems and Data Mining (FSDM 2024)

Abstract: This research aims to provide a fuzzy and multidimensional framework for evaluating the economic outcome of price promotion strategies in the CPG market. Price promotions in the form of temporary price reductions are a relevant driver for sales in CPGs. However, the literature debates their efficacy in building long term market share. We provide a framework for testing the results of different price promotion strategies, classified according to a multidimensional fuzzy index. We tested our model on a database of reported weekly prices and promotions for pasta Brands across different retailers and NUTS1 Areas in Italy. The database has been elaborated to impute missing data and correct for reporting inconsistencies. Pricing and price promotions strategies are classified for every year across the different retailers and NUTS1 areas according to three dimensions: regular price level, temporary price reduction frequency, and temporary price reduction depth. For each dimension we designed membership functions to accommodate the membership in up to 2 adjacent categories. Different membership function approaches have been compared, using linear and non-linear methodologies to fuzzify the transition of items between membership in adjacent categories. The resulting multidimensional indexes have been used to classify the Brand strategy, using the retailers market share as a weight for aggregation on each brand. Market shares for pasta Brands have been derived empirically according to limited data available. We finally associated each Brand strategy to the change in its market share, searching for relations between strategies and their outcomes.
Keywords: Fuzzy Logic, Consumer Packaged Goods, Pricing, Price Promotion Strategies, Market share

Biography: Gianni Betti was born on July the 21st 1970 in Siena (Italy). Graduated in Statistics and Economics at the University of Siena in 1994, obtained his PhD degree in Applied Statistics at the University of Florence in 1998. In 1998 has been Visiting Researcher at the ESRC Research Centre on Micro-social Change, University of Essex; in 1999 was Lecturer in Statistics at the Department of Statistics, London School of Economics; from 2000 to April 2005 was Permanent Researcher (Lecturer) at the Department of Quantitative Methods; from May 2005 to December 2016 was Associate Professor at the Department of Economics and Statistics; and since January 2017 is Full Professor in Economic Statistics at the Department of Economics and Statistics, University of Siena.

Research fields of interest and expertise: Personal income distribution theory and models; measures of living conditions with special reference to poverty analysis and inequality; models of economic behaviour with special to consumers’ expenditures; equivalence scales and cost of children. Statistical methods for longitudinal (panel) analyses; nonresponse, interviewer effect, panel attrition and weighting problems; sampling theory with particular reference to small areas. Statistical matching of different sources (Census, Surveys, Administrative data, etc…). Long experience in working with SILC and Household Budget Surveys, included some eastern European countries (Albania, Macedonia, Montenegro, Poland, Romania and Ukraine). Publications: about 60 published papers in journals or book chapters in economics and statistics. Scientific Societies Memberships: SIS (Società Italiana di Statistica), IASS (International Association of Survey Statistician).